The secret of Satoshi Nakamoto

Where have the billions gone? Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonym of the person or group that developed Bitcoin and published the Bitcoin white paper in 2008. The true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto remains a mystery to this day, and there are numerous theories as to who might be behind this name.

One of these theories recently identified Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of Twitter (now X) and Square (now Block), as a possible Satoshi Nakamoto. VanEck analyst Matthew Sigel recently voiced this theory on X.

Pro arguments for Jack Dorsey as Satoshi

1. Technical know-how: Dorsey has advanced programming skills and a deep understanding of network technologies.
2. Decentralization philosophy: Dorsey has repeatedly expressed his enthusiasm for decentralized technologies and is a well-known Bitcoin proponent.
3. Timing coincidence: In the early Bitcoin development phase, Dorsey was not working full-time at Twitter, which theoretically would have given him time for a side project.
4. Financial independence: As a successful entrepreneur, Dorsey would have had no financial incentive to sell his early Bitcoins, which is consistent with Satoshi’s behavior.
5. The website of Dorsey’s company Square: When the homepage went online, it featured two blue squares in the logo. Two days later, Nakamoto offered blue squares when discussing the future Bitcoin logo.
6. A dubious T-shirt: There is a picture from 1996 of Jack Dorsey wearing an RSA Munition T-shirt designed by a prominent cypherpunk, Adam Back, whose hashcash technology helped Satoshi create Bitcoin.

Contra arguments against Jack Dorsey as Satoshi

1. Writing style: Satoshi’s writing style in emails and forum posts differs significantly from Dorsey’s well-known communication style.
2. Public confession: Dorsey has repeatedly described himself as a Bitcoin enthusiast, but never as its creator. He has publicly supported other Bitcoin projects instead of staying in the shadows.
3. Time constraints: Founding and managing Twitter would hardly leave enough time to develop a system as complex as Bitcoin.
4. Technical expertise: Although Dorsey is an accomplished programmer, there is no evidence that he has the specific cryptographic knowledge that was necessary for the development of Bitcoin.
5. No evidence: There is no concrete evidence linking Dorsey to Satoshi’s original Bitcoin wallets.

Where have they gone?

The big question is: where have they gone? Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to own around 1 million Bitcoins. That would roughly correspond to the current value of around 85 billion euros. However, the currency is highly volatile and the exact number of Bitcoins is only an estimate. If you want to know exactly, we recommend using a currency converter.

This estimate is based on the analysis of early block rewards from the early days of the Bitcoin network, when Satoshi was probably one of the few miners.

These early Bitcoins were mined in the first blocks of the blockchain, mainly in 2009 and early 2010. Remarkably, these Bitcoins have never been moved since their creation, which is considered another mystery surrounding Satoshi.

The Bitcoin quantity

How do we arrive at these figures? Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to hold about 4.8-5% of the total amount of Bitcoin that will ever exist.

The calculation is based on the following facts:

1. Satoshi probably owns about 1 million Bitcoins
2. The maximum number of Bitcoins that will ever exist is limited to 21 million (by the Bitcoin code)

Therefore: 1 million ÷ 21 million = 0.0476 or about 4.8%

Current share in circulation

If you look at the percentage of Bitcoin currently in circulation, the percentage is slightly higher: since around 19.5-19.6 million Bitcoins have been mined to date, Satoshi’s share would currently be around 5.1-5.2% of the currently existing Bitcoin supply.

Meaning in context

This percentage is significant for a single entity in the cryptocurrency market. In comparison:

• Large institutional investors such as MicroStrategy or Tesla hold significantly smaller stakes
• Even the largest Bitcoin exchanges and custodians generally do not have comparable holdings under direct control

The fact that this significant amount of Bitcoin has remained untouched for over a decade has both pricing and philosophical implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem.

And now?

Whether shares or bitcoins, they are paper goods until they are sold. As these bitcoins have never been issued or transferred, this has a significant impact on the market:

1. They effectively reduce the circulating supply of Bitcoin
2. They represent a potential risk – should they ever be moved suddenly, this could cause significant market fluctuations
3. Many in the community see the inactivity of these wallets as proof that Satoshi created the project for idealistic reasons and not for financial motives

To this day, it remains a mystery whether Satoshi ever intended to use these Bitcoins, or whether access to them may have been lost.

Evaluation of the theory

Returning to the latest theory, this one by Matthew Sigel about the identity of Satoshi appears speculative and is based mainly on circumstantial evidence and similarities in philosophy, not concrete evidence. Without solid evidence, it remains one of many Satoshi theories.

The Bitcoin community is rife with such speculation, and so far none has been clearly substantiated. It is important to keep in mind that the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto may be deliberately concealed, as the anonymity of the creator contributes to the decentralization and independent nature of Bitcoin.

The Jack Dorsey theory comes four months after the HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery”, in which director Cullen Hoback named Peter Todd, a 39-year-old Canadian software developer, as the inventor of Bitcoin. Since then, Todd has gone into hiding due to security concerns. There was no solid evidence here either.

If you would like to know more about this topic, you can find information here, among other places:

https://milkroad.com/daily/yikes-is-solana-dead/

https://www.bitpanda.com/academy/de/lektionen/satoshi-nakamoto/

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto